HOW DO WE KNOW SMOKING CAUSES LUNG CANCER?
Posted: under Cancer.
Unravelling the link between smoking and lung cancer has been one of the most successful exercises in the science of epidemiology. The part played by British scientific workers, most notably Sir Richard Doll from the University of Oxford, has been one of the most substantial contributions of British science to medicine.
• Through this century the upward trend in lung cancer has followed the upward trend in smoking closely.
• The incidence of lung cancer is higher in smokers. A large number of studies in analytical epidemiology all point in the same direction.
• The more you smoke the more likely you are to get lung cancer. This is true for the duration of smoking and the number of cigarettes smoked. The exact relationship between the number of cigarettes smoked and the increased risk of lung cancer can still be debated. People have smoked in different ways in different countries and discarded different amounts of the cigarettes. The tar content of cigarettes varies greatly and has fallen steadily in cigarettes smoked in Western Europe and the United States.
A recent estimate from the United States (report of the Surgeon General, 1989) says that regular cigarette smokers have more than a twenty times greater chance of getting lung cancer than lifelong non-smokers. The relationship between the number of cigarettes smoked and the risk is not a simple straight line. We cannot be precise about the relationship but Sir Richard Doll and his colleagues suggest that the likelihood of getting cancer from cigarette smoking rises according to a more complicated mathematical relationship known as a quadratic. Broadly this will mean that increasing the number of cigarettes smoked may have a disproportionate effect on the chance of getting lung Cancer.
• When you stop smoking your chance of gating lung cancer falls. Within ten years the risk has fallen dramatically from what it would have been if smoking had continued although it may take quite a long time to return to the very small level of risk enjoyed by non-smokers.
• Smoking low-tar cigarettes reduces the risk of lung cancer. This is strong evidence because most other factors about the two groups – those using high-tar and those using low-tar cigarettes – will be similar. Only the change in the level of tar in cigarettes is likely to explain the change in lung cancer incidence which in low-tar smokers is reduced to about 60 per cent of the risk for patients smoking high-tar cigarettes.
• Chemicals in cigarette tar are mutagenic and carcinogenic. By this we mean that such chemicals alter genes and have been shown in the laboratory to produce cancer.
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